U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner arrived in Tel Aviv on Monday to reinforce a tenuous Gaza ceasefire, after a weekend flare-up in which Israel threatened to halt aid deliveries following the killing of two soldiers it blamed on Hamas fighters, according to reporting from the Chicago Tribune. The Israeli military later said it had resumed enforcing the truce, and officials signaled aid would restart under inspections, though it remained unclear by early afternoon whether the flow had fully resumed, the Chicago Tribune reported.

Diplomacy on the ground

The envoys’ arrival comes just over a week into a U.S.-proposed truce meant to halt two years of war, a deal that was immediately tested by exchanges around Rafah and a pause threat on aid, according to the Chicago Tribune. President Donald Trump described Hamas as “quite rambunctious” amid sporadic violence and suggested internal dissension could be to blame for incidents, the Chicago Tribune reported.

Since the ceasefire began, Hamas security forces have returned to some streets in Gaza, confronting armed groups and targeting alleged gangsters in a claimed effort to reassert order where Israeli troops had withdrawn, according to the Chicago Tribune. The Israeli military said militants fired on troops in Israeli-controlled sections of Rafah in violation of agreed lines, while Hamas accused Israel of multiple breaches and said it had lost contact with remaining units in Rafah and could not account for local incidents, the Chicago Tribune reported. A Hamas delegation led by chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya traveled to Cairo to work with mediators and other Palestinian factions on implementation details, according to the Chicago Tribune.

What the truce actually requires

Core elements of the U.S.-backed plan include disarming or significantly degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, a phased Israeli withdrawal from additional areas of Gaza, and establishing an internationally supported authority to administer the strip during recovery—aimed at offering a viable alternative to Hamas, according to the Chicago Tribune. Kushner framed success bluntly: if Israel and an international mechanism can build a credible alternative, “Hamas will fail, and Gaza will not pose a future threat to Israel,” the Chicago Tribune reported.

Aid deliveries—resuming through Kerem Shalom and other crossings after Israeli inspections—are hardwired into the agreement’s early phases, reflecting how supply lines and security provisions intersect, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Human costs and contested numbers

The war’s toll remains stark and disputed. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports more than 68,000 Palestinians killed during the conflict, figures that U.N. agencies and independent experts often rely on while noting methodological limitations and the lack of civilian-combatant breakdowns, according to the Chicago Tribune. Israel has challenged those totals but has not published a directly comparable count, the Chicago Tribune reported. Thousands more are missing, humanitarian officials say, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The broader backdrop includes the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw 251 hostages taken into Gaza, according to the Chicago Tribune. These casualty and accountability figures remain central to demands for transparent, independent verification and credible investigations by all parties, the Chicago Tribune reported.

The humanitarian stakes

Even if guns fall silent, the daily calculus is unforgiving. Gaza has roughly two million residents, extremely high unemployment near 50%, and widespread dependency on humanitarian assistance, with about 70–80% of households relying on aid depending on the period, according to U.N. data from OCHA. Years of blockade and repeated rounds of fighting have left housing, water and sanitation systems, and health facilities heavily damaged, underscoring why uninterrupted aid and reconstruction financing are essential for any governance transition to take hold, the U.N. assessments from OCHA show.

Why the ceasefire might falter

Analysts warn that fragmentation among armed groups in Gaza, enforcement asymmetries, humanitarian stress, and credibility gaps could each tip the truce back into crisis if not addressed in parallel. Command-and-control weaknesses—particularly when local actors operate outside centralized directives—raise the risk of incidents even when leaders back a truce, a concern underscored by recent flare-ups described in the Chicago Tribune. Humanitarian pressure is acute given the socioeconomic baseline, according to OCHA, while rights groups have cautioned that unresolved allegations and accountability disputes erode trust in ceasefire compliance, according to Human Rights Watch.

Monitoring, and the limits of U.S. leverage

Washington is working with regional partners to mediate disputes and support monitoring—efforts that typically blend diplomatic presence, coordination with host authorities, intelligence sharing, and, where feasible, third‑party verification, according to Reuters. The credibility of those efforts tends to rise with multilateral participation and clear protocols for handling violations, but their effectiveness ultimately depends on access and buy‑in from Israeli and Palestinian actors, analyses from the Brookings Institution note.

What experts recommend now

To bolster the truce’s durability and lend legitimacy to a post‑conflict authority, analysts propose several immediate steps drawn from humanitarian and policy guidance:

  • Establish a multilateral monitoring mechanism with regional stakeholders and neutral observers to improve impartiality and detection capacity, according to the Brookings Institution and Reuters.
  • Publish explicit inspection procedures at crossings that balance security with speed, coupled with independent audits to reduce politicization of aid, analysts recommend, drawing on guidance cited by Reuters.
  • Sequence reforms by pairing localized security arrangements under international oversight with phased disarmament tied to verifiable steps and civilian protections, according to the Brookings Institution.
  • Deploy rapid “stabilization” aid—shelter, water, health—with transparent delivery metrics to build public confidence, guided by U.N. operational practice from OCHA.

Street‑level skepticism, and what could change it

Palestinians in Gaza remain wary that the deal will hold after the Rafah flare‑up and renewed funerals for those killed earlier by Israeli strikes, according to the Chicago Tribune. Opinion research suggests that skepticism runs deep: roughly 60% of Palestinians doubt ceasefires will last, even as majorities continue to favor a negotiated two‑state outcome, according to surveys summarized by PCPSR. That gap between aspirations and trust highlights how quickly visible improvements—jobs, services, and security—will be needed to sustain any new governing arrangement, the surveys from PCPSR indicate.

Whether the truce stabilizes may hinge on a simple test: can diplomacy deliver quiet streets and steady aid faster than spoilers can upend it? The answer will depend on enforcement discipline in Rafah and beyond, the credibility of monitoring, and whether Gazans see tangible changes in daily life, according to reporting from the Chicago Tribune and U.N. data from OCHA.